With the end of the domestic summer agricultural fertilizer, the urea market fell in July, the new orders were slow to follow up, and most of the merchants followed the picking; the pre-collection pressure of manufacturers increased due to the sweeping of agricultural fertilizers, environmental protection pressurization, and the slowdown in downstream procurement. Although some manufacturers' quotations were firm, actual transactions and market wholesales declined, and outbound sales repeatedly broke new lows. Prices in major production areas fell sharply, and most large traders watched the market with cold eyes, and manufacturers generally reported poor new orders. Judging from the current construction and demand situation, the situation of oversupply has emerged. The lack of strong support makes it difficult for the market to decline in the later period.

 

Fall fertilizer preparation continues to advance. With the promotion of preferential policies, most companies are still able to collect the first round of payment, and the on-site operating rate has increased, and companies actively arrange for shipment. The mainstream price of wheat fertilizer is not low under the support of high raw material prices. The market is still unclear, and the industry's mentality is unstable. Due to the high prices in the off-season and the falling prices in the peak season in previous years, some small and medium-sized households are more cautious in preparing fertilizers. Moreover, autumn is dominated by high phosphate fertilizers, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer should not be too much, and the price of urea in the later period will be limited.

 

In addition, India's bid is imminent. Based on US sanctions against Iran, industry insiders have rumored that the bid for China may be sold. In recent years, the international market is not good, and the export situation of urea is severe. India ’s bidding has shrunk severely. The international production capacity has gradually increased and competition is fierce. China has already lost its hegemony in India's bidding. Of course, it is good to be able to export, to ease domestic pressure, and to purchase compound fertilizers, there may be a wave of quotes.

 

In summary, the downstream mentality collapsed, and the companies reported high and fell, falling again and again. The gold bumps, which rose to 2000+ several times in 2018, have now become difficult to deal with. In order to ensure that the urea price will not fall too much, manufacturers have issued policies such as the Fed and the Federal Reserve. There are few downstream buyers, and they are still used as they are. Zhongyu Information predicts that urea will continue to decline in the second half of the year, and the ex-factory price in the main production areas will be 1800-1850 yuan / ton. The market is waiting for news guidance.