Every day when dealing with agricultural resources, you have to understand the market. The so-called know yourself and know each other, and you can understand the market laws in order to understand the market law. Overall, the fertilizer market in the first half of this year showed several major characteristics: decreased output, reduced demand, reduced exports, overall price increases, and imports. Keep climbing.

 

First, the output fell. Due to factors such as strict environmental protection regulation and insufficient supply of raw materials, fertilizer production in the first half of this year showed a downward trend. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China produced a total of 13.069 million tons of chemical fertilizers (reduced to pure, the same below), down 11.1% year-on-year, of which nitrogen fertilizer was 8.531 million tons, down 12.4%; phosphate fertilizer was 3.387 million tons, down 7.2%, and potassium fertilizer was 113.6 10,000 tons, down 12.8%.

 

Second, the demand has decreased. Demand for chemical fertilizers is declining due to factors such as low prices of agricultural products, low farmers' enthusiasm for planting, substitution of organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers, fertilization by soil testing and reduced fertilizer use. According to industry statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China's apparent fertilizer consumption was 13.555 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, of which nitrogen fertilizer was 7.883 million tons, a decrease of 8.1%; phosphate fertilizer was 2.925 million tons, a decrease of 4.2%; potash fertilizer was 2.731 million tons, a decrease of 7%.

 

3. Decline in exports and decrease in imports. Due to the high cost of fertilizer production in China and the decline in competitiveness in the international market, this year's export volume of China's fertilizers has declined. According to customs statistics, in the first five months of this year, China ’s cumulative exports of chemical fertilizers amounted to 7.124 million tons, down 17.9% year-on-year; the cumulative export value was 1.88 billion US dollars, down 7.7% year-on-year. The export volume of urea, potassium sulfate and other varieties dropped significantly.

 

Fourth, prices have risen across the board. In the first half of this year, the price of chemical fertilizer changed from the previous decade's decline and became strong. Whether it is a single fertilizer or a compound fertilizer, the price has risen in an all-round way, and nitrogen fertilizer has the largest increase, hitting a new high in the past five years. According to the monitoring of China Agricultural Materials Circulation Association, on June 18, China ’s fertilizer wholesale price composite index was 2183.22 points, up 264.31 points year-on-year, or 13.77%; China ’s urea wholesale price index was 2001.24 points, up 18.13% year-on-year; The wholesale price index of ammonium was 2817.15 points, up 6.21% year-on-year; the wholesale price index of China's potassium chloride was 2081.10 points, up 10.39% year-on-year; the retail price index of China's compound fertilizer was 2453.35 points, up 8.26% year-on-year.

 

Fifth, the import volume continues to rise. In the first five months of this year, China imported a total of 5.007 million tons of chemical fertilizers, an increase of 15.1% year-on-year; the cumulative import value was US $ 1.34 billion, an increase of 24.9% year-on-year.